The market is already pricing in a Selic cut in August 2026, after inflation came in below expectations. But how does this impact dollar futures and Ibovespa? The answer is: significantly.
With the Selic falling, the real tends to depreciate, which raises dollar futures. At the same time, lower interest rates stimulate the economy and make the stock market more attractive, which can boost Ibovespa. For the trader, this is a golden opportunity.
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The secret is to anticipate the move. When the market starts pricing in the cut, the dollar may surge and the index may accelerate its rise. Keeping an eye on Copom projections and Central Bank officials’ speeches is essential.
To learn how to read these signals, invest in macroeconomic analysis courses. And to protect your gains, follow @edimilson.tributario on Instagram.