US inflation, measured by the CPI (Consumer Price Index), has a direct impact on the Brazilian futures market. In July 2026, with US CPI coming in below expectations, the dollar future fell and Ibovespa soared.
When US inflation is high, the Fed tends to raise rates, which appreciates the dollar and pressures the real. This makes the dollar future rise and Ibovespa fall. Conversely, when inflation is low, the Fed cuts rates, the dollar falls, and Ibovespa rises.
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For traders, following the US CPI release calendar is essential. Each data point can generate volatility and create profit opportunities. Macroeconomics courses can help you interpret these numbers.
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