Brazilian fiscal policy — which involves public spending, revenue, and primary surplus targets — has a direct impact on the futures market. In July 2026, with the government working to meet the fiscal framework, the market reacted positively, with the dollar falling and Ibovespa rising.
When the market perceives that the government is committed to controlling spending, confidence increases, country risk decreases, and the real appreciates. This makes the dollar future fall and Ibovespa rise. On the other hand, when there is fiscal uncertainty, the dollar surges and the index plummets.
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