US interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), are one of the main drivers of dollar futures in Brazil. In July 2026, with the market expecting a rate cut in the US, dollar futures are trading lower, near R$ 5.13. But how exactly does this relationship work?
When the Fed raises rates, the dollar appreciates globally, as US bonds become more attractive. This puts pressure on the real and raises dollar futures. Conversely, when the Fed cuts rates, the dollar weakens, benefiting emerging currencies like the real.
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For traders trading dollar futures, monitoring Fed decisions and officials’ speeches is essential. Every word can generate volatility and create profit opportunities. Macroeconomics courses applied to the futures market can teach you to interpret these signals.
And don’t forget: all profits from dollar futures are taxable. To learn how to declare your gains and pay less tax, follow @edimilson.tributario on Instagram.